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October 26, 2008

Selection bias

American Thinker suggests there are signs pointing to a McCain victory. His arguments are sound - and I particularly enjoy anecdotal law sign/bumper sticker evidence - but I am posting a link due to this gem from the comments. God bless Vid III.

I am a big believer that John McCain will win. I have high optimism that he will even win in California, where I live and Washington state, where my sister said people there has a margin of 2 to 1 posters in their yard in favor of McCain. This will be the largest surprise on Novemebr 4th which the MSM is not talking so much about because they presume that since these are blue states from previous elections, Obama will win. I will just give a simple survey of mine. My family, a mix of Asians and Americans have at least 15 voters. In the 2004 elections, 7 of them are Bush supporters and they are not crazy about Hillary this year. The rest, including me, are Democrats and supported Hillary all the way. Now that Hillary is not in the ballot, my family is 100% McCain. My friends and community who are 80% Democrats are 100% supporting McCain. Let me give an example of what happened in the primaries. First California, 3 to 5 days before the Super Tuesday primaries, all the polls reported Obama will win California by 9% to 15%. The result, Obama lose big (14%), the reason Asians and Hispanics rejected him. And one election later cannot change the opinion of these culturally diverse communities. Culturally these two groups of minorities love and respect women leaders and I believe the selection of Sarah Palin attracted more California Democrats to McCain. Then secondly, Washington. If you all remember in the primaries, Washington state has a Caucus and a Primary. Delegates will be decided from the Caucus results. Obama won big because majority of Hillary supporters, 85% from Asians cannot vote in caucuses since they are working. But 10 days later during the non binding primary Obama and Hillary were almost tied, this time the Asians there were able to vote. So watch California and Washington state. The West will give it to McCain. Forget Colorado or Nevada. THIS IS THE OCTOBER SURPRISE EVERYBODY IS WAITING FOR, but it wil come late on November 4.

Also, Shtuey.

As our last PUMA protest at the DNC in Denver ended, minutes before the televised fraud that was the roll call vote, we chanted "Country before party!" We meant it then, and we mean it now. The PUMA movement has never been about Clinton supporters being sore losers. It is about doing what we can to make sure the DNC is held accountable for raping its charter by hijacking delegates, intimidating and censoring pledged delegates, and disenfranchising 18 million people by rigging the aforementioned roll call. We have known for months that the DNC was going to nominate a dangerous, unqualified, sexist, bigoted, Stalinist liar and thug. His campaign organized and executed a strategy to seize control of the caucuses. This fraud is now well documented (http://www.lynettelong.com/CAUCUSFRAUD/). The DNC did nothing to stop it. The media refused to report it.

I've been listening to a lot of conservative talk radio over the past month and a half. I'm amazed at the number of people who find themselves falling victim to the same methods of voter suppression through polling and media drumming that we experienced in the primaries. On the last day of the Democrat Party primaries AP released a false story that Clinton was conceding; BEFORE THE POLLS CLOSED. There has most likely not been a point where Obama has polled ahead of McCain out of the margin of error. Republicans need to know there are millions of us out there that are going to vote against Obama because of his politics, and his hand in the destruction of democratic process. We could care less about the color of his skin. It's the content of his character we have a problem with. I have never voted Republican before. Country before party.

DO NOT STAY HOME!

Posted by Ghost of a flea at October 26, 2008 09:21 AM

Comments

The unspoken fact in all of this? "People of color" do not have the solidarity that white liberals assume they must have.

It is a simply fact that in general, many Asians and Hispanics do not like blacks. Sad but true.

Posted by: Kathy Shaidle [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 26, 2008 09:59 AM

This is one of the great unstate-eds in this election cycle. Plus McCain may be the most popular senator on either side of the aisle with Latinos.

It would be hilarious if McCain/Palin took California. I would be laughing for the next four years (with a slightly constipated expression; McCain would spend the next four years trying to open the southern border).

Posted by: Ghost of a flea [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 26, 2008 10:19 AM

But what exactly will a weak McCain do facing a Dem majority in both houses? Obviously the Community Organizer would be worse, but either way it's a bad scene. Maybe we can at least see Palin bitch-slap Pelosi

The Dems have an advantage because unlike 1980, there's a lot of Americans who think they can have something for nothing. Ask not what your country can do for you - Demand it! Oy vey

Posted by: jdpercifield [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 28, 2008 09:22 AM

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