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April 24, 2009

Second order effects

As tensions escalate, Yankee Sailor offers an outline for a Russian invasion of Georgia and an alternate "hasty plan" for the defense of Georgia. Both make for interesting reading (and both links via AoSHQ).

Also interesting is a comment on "second order effects" of a Russian occupation of Georgia left by Subotai Bahadur (if such is his real name) at the second post. The (old) European establishment may have something to gain by Russian aggression.

There is no doubt that, despite the pro-Russian posting on the thread about the other side of this coin, that independent Georgia will be gone within a couple of weeks of the commencement of hostilities. Neither Europe nor the United States will intervene in any way to aid Georgia.

The next thing to ponder is what the second order effects will be.

a) the effects on any dependent allies of the United States.
b) the effects on NATO.
c) the effects on the EU, given that Western Europe is dependent on Russian energy already.
d) an especial emphasis on the effects on the “near abroad”. How far are the former Warsaw Pact countries going to go in yielding sovereignty out of fear of Russia and knowing that there will be absolutely no help from the West. e) economic effects. The EU has never been happy with the free market ways of the Eastern Europeans, viewing their work ethic and belief in less socialism and more capitalism a threat to the hegemony of the EU. Many in the EU would be glad to be rid of the competition. Further, since so much of the European banks’ problems are related to real estate deals in Eastern Europe, their loss to the West could be used to allow a ‘write down’ combined with government bailouts that would mitigate the EU’s problems.

Posted by Ghost of a flea at April 24, 2009 08:08 AM