Ghost of a flea: The numbers

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December 31, 2007

The numbers

Editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, Andrei Chang runs the numbers for fuel consumption should the PLA/A attempt to invade Taiwan. Flea-readers with aviation and related experience are invited to comment. For example, I am uncertain what sort of ball park we are talking about in considering an aircraft's supposed maximum range vs its actual fuel consumption in sorties under combat conditions.

The combined fuel needs of all combat forces engaged in an assault on Taiwan would amount to a minimum of 15,994 tons each day, not including the Second Artillery Forces and logistic support troops. These calculations alone indicate that the PLA forces would need a total of 240,000 tons of fuel to sustain 15 days of assault operations against Taiwan.

What is the total annual fuel consumption of the Chinese armed forces? A report published by the PLA General Logistics Department in 2007 says that the PLA forces saved 55,000 tons of oil in 2006, approximately 5.1 percent of their total consumption. Based on this figure, the total would be over 1 million tons, about 2,954 tons on average per day. It can be concluded that fuel consumption in a 15-day large-scale assault operation would surpass 20 percent of the annual total consumption of the Chinese military.

And then there is the question of the ChiCom's actual fuel reserve and just how deep they would be prepared to dip into it in the event of war. Chang offers a related piece listing four Chinese strategic oil reserve bases* suggesting at least three are vulnerable to Taiwanese air force and cruise missile attack. If I am a Taiwanese war planner the first thing I do is shut down oil traffic for the far east through the Lombok and Malacca Straits... how far out of the way are Japan and South Korea prepared to escort tanker traffic?**

* Zhenhai Base in Zhejiang province, Luanshan Base on Zhoushan Island of Zhejiang province, Huangdao Base in Qingdao, Shandong province, and Dayawan Base in Guangdong province.
** This April 2005 piece at Belmont Club thinks through some contingencies including Taiwanese diesel electric submarines, supertanker sea lanes and the strategic fuel reserves of the United States and Japan.

Posted by Ghost of a flea at December 31, 2007 06:51 AM

Comments

At the moment I cannot imagine the circumstances in which China would take the risk of invading Taiwan. given that a great deal of Taiwanise money and expertise is fueling the china boom where is the profit.

Sure, the old guard in China will, no doubt, want to avenge Mao's loss of face to Chiang; but there are a lot of other people, including the very profitable People's Army who are not going to jump on the sink Taiwan band wagon.

The oil is one thing, your father-in-law or banker or investor is quite another.

Posted by: Jay Currie at January 1, 2008 05:05 AM