Ghost of a flea: The Russia Problem

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October 18, 2007

The Russia Problem

It seems to me that Peter Zeihan overstates the efficacy of Russian military hardware in this Stratfor discussion of Russian grand strategy. "The Russia Problem" is fine read nonetheless; I have just re-read Isaac Asimov's Foundation and am in the mood for science fiction.

The Russian geography is problematic. It lacks oceans to give Russia strategic distance from its foes and it boasts no geographic barriers separating it from Europe, the Middle East or East Asia. Russian history is a chronicle of Russia's steps to establish buffers -- and of those buffers being overwhelmed. The end of the Cold War marked the transition from Russia's largest-ever buffer to its smallest in centuries. Put simply, Russia is terrified of being overwhelmed -- militarily, economically, politically and culturally -- and its policies are geared toward re-establishing as large a buffer as possible.

In which case Russia should be far more concerned about the Chinese than it is about the Americans. The latter are likely to be their only ally - their only hope - should Red China decide it likes the look of Siberia's wide open spaces.

Posted by Ghost of a flea at October 18, 2007 07:01 AM

Comments

Yes, Russia's decision to turn to Beijing instead of Washington for strategic partnership is one that, while smart in the short term, is idiotic in the long term, IMHO.

Had leaders in Moscow instead pushed openly for NATO membership for the last fifteen years, I think Russia would be much more secure.

But governments there must deal with public opinion. And public opinion there is none-too-friendly towards the West.

Posted by: Ben (The Tiger in Exile) at October 18, 2007 07:41 AM