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June 24, 2010

Just a thought

DrewM. considers conditions - not dates - for withdrawal from Afghanistan but as I am reading all I can hear are the words "President Petraeus".

We don't need a Crusade. We need to go Roman.

Like minded: Thomas P.M. Barnett.

... Afghanistan may be a lot better off, and Obama may have picked his replacement in more ways than one.

Posted by Ghost of a flea at June 24, 2010 10:37 AM

Comments

I don't know where they are getting this "Petraeus is not going to take on a lost cause" business, because it doesn't take a whole lot of effort to do the math.

Obama's on record as having his Afghan "surge" in place only until 2011. Plenty of ISAF partners (including us) will also bail out shortly thereafter.

So you've got the maximum amount of troops in-country available this year and part of next. Every day thereafter the numbers get smaller and smaller.

COIN is not magic, it is all about building relationships with local stakeholders by being able to consistently provide security, assistance and development to a local population. Proving in front of people day after day that the government in Kabul is more stable, more resourceful, more responsive; more so than the whacked-out brotherhood in the hills of Pakistan.

Starting in 2011 there will be fewer and fewer resources available to provide security, assistance and development.

All the Taliban has to do is learn how to wait.

You can take a Dieppe or Pearl Harbour and put a famous face in charge, but without the resources to fight it differently the end result is going to be remarkably similar. I see switching of faces but no bottom-line change in resources.

Posted by: Chris Taylor [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 24, 2010 11:43 AM

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