Ghost of a flea: High Noon for Israel

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October 05, 2009

High Noon for Israel

Matt Gurney sees three options for Israel: do nothing and hope for a miracle, hit Iran with a limited military strike or hit Iran with a pre-emptive nuclear attack. There. Somebody said it in print.

This is the most frightening of the hypothetical scenarios, but it cannot be ruled out. As discussed above, Iran’s nuclear program would be very difficult to destroy in a conventional attack, and Iran and Israel are too far apart for Israel to strike with full power. Thus, the nuclear option cannot be ruled out.

Not that the mullahs take Option 3 seriously. They should. In the end, even Quaker Amy Kane was prepared to sacrifice her principles and stand by her husband for all the rest of the town were cowards.

Related: Israel names Russians helping Iran build nuclear bomb. Clearly, the Russians have not thought this through.

“We have heard that Netanyahu came with a list and concrete evidence showing that Russians are helping the Iranians to develop a bomb,” said a source close to the Russian defence minister last week.

“That is why it was kept secret. The point is not to embarrass Moscow, rather to spur it into action.”

Posted by Ghost of a flea at October 5, 2009 06:27 AM

Comments

I expect Israel to select Option 1, even with Netanyahu at the helm. Or the undiscussed Option 4—decapitate the Iranian leadership. Nukes are a complete non-starter though.

That would be a much more likely scenario than nuking Iran. Nuking the various facilities might keep Israel safe for, let's be generous, five to ten years at best. The downside of that is that Israel gains a temporary reprieve while giving the Jew-haters a concrete talking point and leaving the door open for any Muslim state to respond in kind. The world will rush to put Iran back on its feet, including its nuclear program.

Taking out Ahmadinejad and the mullahs, though, would be a much more shrewd. Israel could say, justifiably, they were not prepared to let that regime in particular have them. And they have removed the problem without putting Iran's civil population in undue risk. Then it's up to the next Iranian government to make its move. It too might decide to get nukes for the destruction of Israel, but the fate of its predecessors would be a great object lesson in the downside of such a policy.

Posted by: Chris Taylor at October 5, 2009 01:45 PM