Ghost of a flea

China ought to be reasonably close, maybe a mere 5-10 years behind. They have boats that look like our top-of-the-line, backbone-of-the-fleet Aegis platforms with PESA billboard radars, but do they have the same integrated combat systems (with fully automatic mode) in the guts of the thing? If yes, well, then they might have the equivalence they need (if tactical doctrine measures up, too), because they will be able to handle a serious assault from a CVBG. If not, it's just a matter of time until they train and build the stuff to get there.

I am comfortable with the idea of Indian H-bombs. They live in a dangerous neighbourhood.

But the unified Korea thing is a whopper and highly unlikely. Germany got dealt a body blow by reunification. It's not just how many guys and how much valuable junk is under the dirt. It's how bad is the pollution from years of zero environmental legislation; how many people need extensive and expensive medical treatment due to malnutrition, toxic working conditions, poor hygiene, and so on. How many residences and businesses have to be rebuilt or reinforced because the building codes sucked? How many places of business have to be shut down because they are unsanitary or unsafe?

If they think South Korea won't end up on the hook for that stuff, well good luck. How exactly would the Koreas realistically reunify as two separate states with two separate systems, with one half still starving and destitute? Everyone is going to move next door in a heartbeat unless you use force of arms. Nobody in their right mind is going to say "Sure, I love the system that sucks and can't keep me fed."

And would the DPRK agree to share, say, management of foreign relations? With a South that is somewhat cozy with the US? I can't see that happening. You could probably offer to trade California to Kim Jong Il in return for North Korea and I don't think he'd go for it. Reunification means his house of cards comes down, however slowly and gradually. I can't see how he'd get ever on board with that.