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June 02, 2009

Slow learners

Matt Patterson may be more of a downer than I am with his prognostications of a bloody century ahead. He offers four short scenarios that will only read like science fiction until the moment someone decides to implement them.

Small wonder we are condemned to repeat this sort of thing. We have created a world where casual speculation about genocide elicits less outrage than the emotional well-being of reality show contestants.

1) The mad mullahs of Iran gain a nuclear weapon and follow through on their threat to erase the Jewish state from the map. The Iranians see weakness in the West and foresee minimal retaliation. Perhaps they are wrong in this calculus; either way, seven million souls vanish from the planet and the West is complicit in another Holocaust.

2) Russia, seeing no push back from its invasion of Georgia and seeing the United States all but renounce its missile defenses, begins to swallow its former slave states — Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, et al — one by one. It shuts off fuel supplies to Western Europe and blackmails them into accepting this Soviet-light expansionism.

3) European society, no longer under any credible American protection and threatened from without by the encroaching Russia and from within by its increasingly violent immigrant population, crumbles. As has happened so often in the past, a dictator steps in to restore order.

4) Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, segments of the American population resist the sudden and convulsive socialization of their republic — peacefully first, then more forcefully. China refuses to buy any more of our debt, and trillion dollar deficits finally overwhelm the greatest economic engine the world has ever seen. The U.S. economy fails, dragging the entire world down into depression, sparking global violence and chaos. China moves on Taiwan and the North Koreans push south, both confident that the United States is in no position to stop them.

I dimly remember a time when beheading and crucifixion were symbols of a barbaric, dimly remembered time. Criticize either practice too closely these days and you are liable to end up in front of a "human rights" commission. Change.

Posted by Ghost of a flea at June 2, 2009 08:47 AM

Comments

We in the USA will surely have a rough time of it, economically and politically. I only hope we don't end with some shameful episode or another.

As for the rest, Russia doesn't seem to have any great population available for military adventures, yet I'd fully expect a cynical expenditure of muslim soldiers in the easier-to-get countries with a concurrent flexing of industrial muscle.

I don't think you'll see a mass movement vs. gov't in the USA unless the UK experiences similar. Europe's future looks like Serbia/Kosovo/Bosnia so the Continent may soon become a series of paranoid, mutually-murderous enclaves. Or not.

Posted by: urthshu [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 2, 2009 08:34 PM