Ghost of a flea: Actually existing statistics

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November 04, 2008

Actually existing statistics

Consider the opinion polls. Now consider what the candidates are doing. This from a long piece by Sean Malstrom; worth it both for his analysis and an enormously useful phrase, "Broken Glass Conservatives" (via AoSHQ).

I am not running for President. You, the gentle reader, are not running for President. The only two people who are running for President, Obama and McCain, are going to states and sending advertising money to other states that don’t even match the public polls. For example, Pennslyvania is colored a ‘dark blue’, yet both Obama and McCain are visiting the state. ‘Dark blue’ or ‘light blue’ is the color of Iowa, yet both Obama and McCain are there. Many polls say that Georgia is a ‘toss-up’, yet neither Obama or McCain are visiting that state. Since the only two people running for President are performing actions entirely differently than the public polling, one can either say that the presidential candidates are just running around states randomly and are dumb, or it is the possibility that the public polling is not accurate.

Correct. And blindingly obvious, btw. As for what small towns are doing in New Hampshire: Don't be a dumb ass. This is an election, not Groundhog's Day. What are you, five?

It belatedly occurs to me I should reiterate my guess - a guess being a prediction for people who have actually worked with statistics and consequently do not trust them - regarding the outcome of today's race. Provided I am correct about Pennsylvania, and I think I am, John McCain will be the next President of the United States. I continue to believe the result will be close in both the Electoral College and the popular vote however I do believe there is a possibility of a landslide for McCain.

For people who have not been paying attention, consider the following lest ye think I have drunk ye Kool-Aid: 80% refuse to respond rates make the polls garbage as do their obvious, crippling bias and consequent ludicrous over-sampling of Democrats. Beyond that, fully a third of Obama's core constituents are either convicted felons who cannot vote (in given states), hung over from last night's beer bash or so convinced of an Obama victory/Diebold vote rigging they either cannot or will not vote.

My assessment of McCain's choice of VP candidate stands: She speaks to the Republican base (voter turn out is everything today), the PUMAs (again), and blue collar Reagan Democrats everywhere it matters in mid-West and mid-Atlantic battlegrounds. Do not let Beltway snobbery - or its jumped up, short bus Canadian onservative equivalent - fool you into thinking NASCAR voters agree she is a drag on the ticket. She is not. She remains a sign of McCain's tactical brilliance.

As to his strategy, taking his fight to Ohio and Pennsylvania was exactly right. Obama has raised and squandered $600m on his campaign - much of it criminally via a wide open on line VISA interface - while on the ground in the battlegrounds the RNC has been out-spending the Democrats by millions a day. This can leave a disconcerting, even depressing, impression of Obama media dominance everywhere else, especially given the Pravda-like behaviour of the leftstream (formerly mainstream) media.

Get ready for charges of election fraud as the left sees the difference between their fantasy polls, including the fantasy leaked exit polling to come this afternoon, and the only poll that counts. They have already threatened/promised riots if Hope and Change fail. Which reminds me I need to stock up on popcorn.

Watch the skies!

Update: Forgot to mention. I believe the only possibility of an Obama victory lies in mass voter fraud and a larger than usual turn out of out-of-state zombie voters. Nobody as motivated as a dead Democrat who can vote in three districts.

Update: Also from the linked piece. Remember: There is a reason Obama wants to overturn the right to a secret ballot in union voting.

Lying to pollsters is frequent and a necessity in Pennslyvania due to the unions. Many union bosses will call their members, posing as a ‘pollster’, and if the member gives the wrong asnwer, a thug is sent to the house. The Teacher’s Union there has sent strict orders to vote for Obama “or else”.

Seriously, this is a gold mine.

As James Carville says, “You know what we call candidates who rely on the youth vote? We call them ‘losers’.” Contrary to the intentional false information put out, the GOP get-out-the-vote is extremely strong for Karl Rove invested a significant amount of money and created the machine in the first place. The Democrats are catching up, but some of the Obama ‘get out the vote’ efforts remind me of pouring a bottle of water on an ant pile. The ants run around like crazy, trying to do everything to stop it, but end up accomplishing nothing.

Update: The AOL Straw Poll: McCain 63%, Obama 37%.

With all the mainstream media emphasis on poll numbers that supposedly show strong leads for Barack Obama I was wondering if there should be any analysis of an AOL straw poll that shows John McCain solidly beating Barack Obama in a random sample of hundreds of thousands of readers. A major difference between the AOL straw poll and that of other polls is that the AOL poll does not consist of people that are chosen by the pollsters.

Posted by Ghost of a flea at November 4, 2008 06:14 AM